Turn opinions into markets.
AI turns public takes into AGREE / DISAGREE markets. The crowd takes a side with test ETH, an oracle settles it at the deadline, and the record tracks who was right.
SOL will outperform ETH this month
Trending Belief Markets
From a Take to a Track Record
Five cryptographic stages, each verified by independent protocol layers. No admin custody, no discretionary resolution.
A belief appears
AI reads a high-conviction social take and structures it into an objective, dated on-chain claim.
The market opens
Anyone stakes test ETH on AGREE or DISAGREE into a decentralized pari-mutuel pool.
The author confirms
The creator signs via EIP-712 to stake their reputation and unlock creator fee shares.
Oracle resolves
Verifiable Chainlink price feeds settle the outcome automatically at the deadline.
Record remembered
Settled results permanently update the author's public accuracy and track record score.
Live On-Chain Activity
Every stake, EIP-712 confirmation, and dual payout is recorded transparently on Ethereum Sepolia (11155111) and Robinhood Chain (46631).
| Txn Hash | Method | Block & Age | From (Trader) | Belief Target / Statement | Value (ETH) | Status | Polygonscan Receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake Agree | #629104812s ago | TR | SOL will outperform ETH this month | 1.50 ETH$4,200.00 | Success | ||
| Stake Disagree | #629104634s ago | AL | Federal Reserve delivers 50bps emergency rate cut | 2.40 ETH$6,720.00 | Success | ||
| EIP-712 Sign | #62910421m ago | ON | Bitcoin breaks all-time high beyond $120,000 | 0.00 ETH$0.00 | Success | ||
| Create Market | #62910392m ago | DE | Arbitrum TVL doubles following BOLD upgrade | 0.50 ETH$1,400.00 | Success | ||
| Dual Payout | #62910314m ago | 0x9812...77cc | ETH/BTC ratio hits 0.06 before September ends | 4.85 ETH$13,580.00 | Success |
The Signal Gap: Words vs. Capital
Social sentiment reveals what the crowd says. Staked capital reveals what people truly believe. The divergence between them is where market alpha lives.
“SOL will structurally outpace ETH in monthly active addresses and DEX velocity”
Crowd conviction is overwhelmingly bullish on social media, but smart whale capital is heavily hedging the Disagree side. This creates an asymmetric 2.38x payout opportunity for contrarian traders.
Conviction Becomes a Record
Conviction tracked since March 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Everything you need to know about social conviction markets, oracle resolution, and creator reputation.